ABSTRACT
This study empirically examines how the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has impacted foreign direct investment (FDI), using the quarterly data on bilateral FDI flows from 173 home to 192 host economies from the first quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2021. The severity of COVID-19 in host economies adversely affected FDI in the manufacturing sector regardless of the entry mode, but the effect of home economies' COVID-19 situation on FDI was insignificant. On the other hand, in the services sector, the severity of COVID-19 in both host and home economies has significantly negative impact on greenfield FDI, not on cross-border M&A.
ABSTRACT
Foreign direct investments (FDI) are considered long-term and less sensitive to global shocks as they involve large amounts of capital investment that are costly to reverse. This study examines whether there was a reallocation of FDI flows from destination markets more affected by the pandemic, resulting in a pandemic arbitrage. Using bilateral FDI inflows data from January 2019 to December 2020, we show that FDI flows declined to destination markets that performed worse than source markets in COVID-19 infection rates, with the effect more evident in greenfield FDI. Our results also show that bilateral colonial ties and destination market COVID-19 policy stringency impact the pandemic arbitrage in FDI flows, especially for M&As.